Friday, July 4, 2025

Happy Independence Day - 2025

I've run this post almost every July 4th in the 15 years I've been blogging.  There were only two years I didn't and both of those posts were about problems that must have seemed really big. They not only were really big but still are (20122014).  My lesson is that while they were important, the big picture is to remind ourselves of the history, and enjoy the day with family and friends.  The problems will still be here on the fifth. This year threw me a curve.  I ordinarily post this in the evening of the 3rd; yesterday our ISP was down for hours and we were completely isolated from the outside world.  I don't know when it first went down because we were out, but we had no connection from around 4:45 PM until after 10PM.  The recording on the tech support line said it was a large area outage. 

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. 

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.  

He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. 

He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. 

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. 

He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. 

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. 

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands. 

He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers. 

He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. 

He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. 

He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature. 

He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation: 

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: 

For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states: 

For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world: 

For imposing taxes on us without our consent: 

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury: 

For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses: 

For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies: 

For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments: 

For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. 

He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us. 

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. 

He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation. 

He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands. 

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. 

In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.  

Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends. 

We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

 It has been shown mathematically that in a system with multiple parties, they either converge to two declared parties or through something like a coalition system they functionally become a two party system. In our society, we are too broken apart along party lines, despite the idea of one big “uniparty” now being the subject of millions of jokes and other comments.  In reality, the important choice is a question of whether or not the politico you're referring to is a follower of our founding documents or someone else's. Right now, it appears the biggest competing idea is a tyrannical minority in the name of some form equality, equity or some such nonsense. The biggest competitor is Karl Marx. People are not, and cannot be both free and equal. We are either free or forced into subjugation to create equal outcomes. Opportunities can be equal, like that word that used to be a goal but is now punishable: colorblind. Outcomes can't be. 

Enjoy your day no matter what you do. To those who serve - and have served - to provide this gift of liberty for us:  Thank You from the bottom of my heart.


Wednesday, July 2, 2025

We're just past the halfway point

Halfway through 2025, that is.  

A year has 365 days, and half of that is 182.5.  July 2nd is day number 183 of the year, so the midpoint of 182.5 was technically the afternoon of July 1, Tuesday.  Here in the Silicon Swamp, we're in the last days of the latest sunset of the year; the Sunrise/Sunset app I have on my phone (probably obsolete) shows our local sunset at 8:23 PM until Friday, July 4th, when it crosses the minute mark to 8:22 and sunsets get earlier until the winter solstice.  The changes in sunrise and sunset times are slow this time of year.  Sunrises started getting later back before the start of summer (solstice).  

There's another thing that's going to change soon, possibly after this Friday's Independence Day.  You'll start hearing talk about next year being the 250th anniversary of our founding - if you haven't heard it already.  Many of you will remember the 1976 Bicentennial hoopla which was pretty much constant and everywhere (a few other weirdos and I referred to it as the Bison Testicle).  The 250th anniversary is referred to as the Semiquincentennial, the Bisesquicentennial, or the Sestercentennial.  Wikipedia also offers America250 or the Quarter Millennium.

Closer to today than next July, National Hurricane Center predictions have had an area spread across peninsular Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic off North Carolina for several days.  It was originally given a 20% chance of developing that bumped up to 40% yesterday.  In both cases, that was said to happen in the next seven days not in the next 48 hours.  Late today or tonight, that was changed to look like this, with none of the orange area (40% chance of development) over Florida or in the Gulf:

It's still rated at 40% chance of development, and the fact the Gulf of America has had the orange blob removed doesn't mean it can't reappear there in the next several days.

Our local forecast has shown this to be a rainy weekend since it first appeared on the 10 day forecast.  It sure doesn't look like a good weekend for barbecue or fireworks shows.  And the next SpaceX launch isn't until Monday night/Tuesday morning, July 8.



Tuesday, July 1, 2025

SpaceX piling up reasons to notice the next Starlink launch

We were faced with really unusual weather for this afternoon's launch from Launch Complex 39A on the Kennedy Space Center.  It not only didn't rain, we didn't even get clouded out from seeing the launch from the backyard.  The clouds didn't go overhead, but thoroughly absorbed the sunlight and kept the temperature pleasant.  The 5:04 PM (EDT) launch was a European weather satellite (video coverage) and appeared as flawless as you can imagine.  

Thanks to NextSpaceflight, we knew that there's a second launch early Wednesday morning, 1:29 AM EDT, from SLC-40, but what I didn't know until I went looking for details is that this mission appears ready to set a couple of new records for SpaceX's missions.

First, this will be the 500th launch of a Falcon 9.  Second, this booster will be their fleet leader in number of launches and booster tail number B1067 will be flying its 29th mission.  There are two boosters with 26 flights which puts B1067 two missions ahead of those two boosters now and three ahead when this mission succeeds.  

Typically, around 8-1/2 minutes after liftoff the booster targets a landing.  This landing will be on the droneship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas.’  If successful, this will be the 116th touchdown on this vessel and the 472nd booster landing to date.  

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stands at Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Spaceflight Now will be doing video coverage of this launch



Monday, June 30, 2025

Is the second New Glenn flight a launch to Mars?

In August of 2024 the expectation was that the first flight of Blue Origin's New Glenn would carry a NASA mission to Mars called ESCAPADE.  When the launch window started shrinking and there was no rocket to ride, ESCAPADE's mission was quietly dropped.  Rumors surfaced recently that the mission is looking toward launching later this year on the second New Glenn mission. 

The launch in August of '24 was never obtained for a variety of reasons, but it's now being mentioned as a payload for the second flight of New Glenn.  Since last year's launch window would have been one of the "almost every two years" minimum transit time to Mars windows, if it gets launched this fall, it will take longer to get to Mars, but it should able to get there safely.  The delay is almost good for ESCAPADE.

Had ESCAPADE launched last October, the spacecraft would now be nearing Mars and beginning scientific operations. However, because they missed the Mars "window" last year, they will have to wait for the next one to open late this year. Thus, the nominal plan involves a launch this fall, with the spacecraft now not reaching Mars until later in 2027.

Blue Origin has put together a tentative schedule with four New Glenn missions within the next year.  Ars Technica's sources cautioned that the manifest could be moved around due to the readiness of the next New Glenn vehicles and their payloads.

The references to "first half of 2026" and "mid-2026" lead me to believe this is through around this time in 2026, so four missions within the next year.

Notably, the company plans to launch each new rocket as soon as it is ready to fly to gather data about the vehicle's performance, attempt to catch and reuse first stages, and move closer to a rapid launch cadence. Therefore, if a customer payload is not ready, the company has also developed an inspirational mission called "Cube for the Future," which appears to be part of the company's initiative to inspire future generations to pursue careers in science. This may also fly as a rideshare on one of the launches listed above.

Until the failure of the last four Starship test flights, I think the vast majority of industry watchers would have thought SpaceX had an unbreakable lead over Blue Origin and their attempt at a lunar lander.  Now?  I'm not that sure.  SpaceX's lead doesn't look so insurmountable. 

Dave Limp, Blue Origin CEO, left, and founder Jeff Bezos observe the first New Glenn rocket on its launch pad Wednesday at CCSFS.  Image credit: Jeff Bezos via Instagram.

Barring a major setback, it now appears highly likely that Blue Origin will beat SpaceX in landing a vehicle on the lunar surface. Due to the struggles with development of the Starship vehicle—whether on the ground or in space, the last four Starship upper stages have been lost before achieving a nominal success—some industry officials believe Blue Origin now has a realistic chance to compete with SpaceX in the effort to land NASA astronauts on the Moon as part of the Artemis Program.

Author Eric Berger points out that both companies are developing large, ambitious vehicles—SpaceX with Starship, called the Human Landing System - and Blue Origin with its MK2 lander—but Blue Origin's vehicle is somewhat less technically challenging.  Plus, while Elon Musk has been very vocal about his desire to make human life multiplanetary and "Occupy Mars," Jeff Bezos has come across as far more committed to a lunar program.  I can't imply any sort of understanding of these two guys, but if Bezos sees an opportunity to finally beat his rival in space, does he jump and go for it?  Could be...



Sunday, June 29, 2025

Japan launches their final H-2A Rocket

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) on Saturday (June 28) conducted its 50th and final launch of the H-2A rocket, taking the GOSAT-GW dual-purpose satellite to space.  The mission lifted off from Yoshinobu Launch Complex (LP-1) at the Tenegashima Space Center in Japan at 12:33 p.m. EDT (1633 GMT; 1:33 a.m. June 29, local time in Japan). 

The Greenhouse Gas and Water Cycle Observation Satellite (GOSAT-GW) is the latest in Japan's efforts to observe changes in water cycles and greenhouse gases. GOSAT-GW has joined its predecessors in Earth orbit: GCOM-W2, which launched in 2012 and is known as "SHIZUKU," and GOSAT-1, which launched in 2009 and is known as "IBUKI." 

The H-2A built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been the heart of the Japanese space missions practically since it was first flown in 2001.  It's capable of launching payloads to geosynchronous orbit or to the moon, and even launched the Akatsuki spacecraft to study Venus in 2010, though the spacecraft failed to properly enter Venusian orbit.  

During its nearly 25 years in operation, the rocket experienced only a single launch failure, giving the vehicle a 98% success rate. After 50 missions, the launch vehicle is now being retired to make way for Japan's H3 rocket, which offers comparable performance at a lower cost.

Japan launched its 50th and final H-2A rocket carrying the GOSAT-GW satellite on Saturday, June 28, 2025. (Image credit: JAXA)

Doing a search on "H-2A" I find a couple of mentions here in the blog, mostly missions that got some press in the stateside sources I use, and not much information.  If you'd like to watch a video of this last launch, there's an 85 minute video from JAXA on YouTube, set to start at about 60 seconds before the launch.  It's sorta bilingual with English narration during the active parts of the mission, which is the only way I could understand it.  I seem to have three articles on the H3, a failed first test flight in March of '23 and then the first two successful flights in July and November of '24.  



Saturday, June 28, 2025

It's Field Day Weekend '25

As I write, it's Saturday afternoon the 28th, both EDT and UTC.  It's the last weekend in June and that marks the weekend of the year when American ham radio operators conduct the biggest operating event of the year that isn't a contest: Field Day.  Strictly speaking, Field Day (or FD) is an event organized by the American Radio Relay League, or ARRL, so people who are opposed to the ARRL for whatever reason look down on the event.  Saying it's not a contest is one of those things that's technically true, by definition, but people submit scores and their logs for bragging rights.  FD runs from 1800 hours UTC on Saturday (2PM EDT) to 2059 Sunday ( 4:59:59 PM EDT).  

The purpose of Field Day is to get hams comfortable operating in different and austere conditions, as we often do while doing emergency communications.  The ARRL describes it like this:

Field Day is ham radio's open house. Every June, more than 40,000 hams throughout North America set up temporary transmitting stations in public places to demonstrate ham radio's science, skill and service to our communities and our nation. It combines public service, emergency preparedness, community outreach, and technical skills all in a single event. Field Day has been an annual event since 1933, and remains the most popular event in ham radio.

I've operated many FD events in my 49 years as a ham.  The first time was with a couple of the friends who helped me get my license.  We got permission to park a van in an unused field at the junior college, one guy borrowed a generator from his company, and we ran random length wires into nearby trees.  It was the first time I encountered the law of Field Days in Florida: it's gonna rain on Saturday.  The rain will be a thunderstorm. Over the years, I've repeated that in small groups and large club stations running several stations along with temporary antenna towers and multiple AC generators.  I've also operated FD with a fixed, permanently installed station, just to hand out points to the guys in the tents outside (in Field Day lingo, that's a class 1D station; one transmitter running on permanent line power.)  Because air conditioning.

An ARRL picture from FD 2019. It looks like (probably) three stations are visible

If you're expecting to put up stations if/when the SHTF, there are good lessons to teach yourself in putting up a FD station.  I should have mentioned FD earlier, but any day can be field day if you just want to learn how to put up a station, or operate portable.  The terms to look up are POTA - Parks on the Air - and SOTA - Summits on the Air.  These are popular operating events in which people take a station to a park or mountain summit, generally with battery power and Field Day-type antennas.  They are almost always low power (QRP).  You just don't get the advantage of having experienced guys around to show you how it's done.   This is something YouTube can be good for.  



Friday, June 27, 2025

Small Space News Story Roundup 60

It has been a while since I've done one of these.

Mexico looking at ways to interfere with SpaceX's Texas operations. 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is looking for ways to hamper or slow SpaceX operations at Starbase Boca Chica after SpaceX's Starship 36 disintegrated in a giant fireball earlier this month as it was being fueled for a test-firing of its engines, The New York Times reports (warning for extreme subscription nagging).  No one was injured in the accident which rained debris on the beaches of the northern Mexican state of Tamaulipas.  

Collision course ..."We are reviewing everything related to the launching of rockets that are very close to our border," Sheinbaum said at a news conference Wednesday. If SpaceX violated any international laws, she added, "we will file any necessary claims." Sheinbaum's leftist party holds enormous sway around Mexico, and the Times reports she was responding to calls to take action against SpaceX amid a growing outcry among scientists, regional officials, and environmental activists over the impact that the company's operations are having on Mexican ecosystems. SpaceX, on the other hand, said its efforts to recover debris from the Starship explosion have been "hindered by unauthorized parties trespassing on private property." SpaceX said it requested assistance from the government of Mexico in the recovery and added that it offered its own resources to help with the cleanup.

You picked a fine time to swing by Apophis 

(Sung to the tune of "Lucille" by Kenny Rogers - yeah the extra syllable in Apophis is awkward) 

Chances are readers here are among the people most aware of the approaching close fly-by of Earth by the asteroid Apophis in a bit under four years (April of 2029).  Once the Osiris-REx probe completed the mission that brought samples of asteroid Bennu back to Earth, it was re-purposed to be called OSIRIS-Apophis Explorer (OSIRIS-APEX), which will take the spacecraft on several more loops around the Sun.  Soon after Apophis passes less than 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from Earth in 2029, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will enter orbit around the asteroid for more than a year of close-up observations.  

An aspect of this mission that's suddenly getting some attention is to use a satellite to measure properties of Apophis, creating a detailed model of the asteroid's interior.   

"This is a remarkable opportunity," said Bobby Braun, who leads space exploration for the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, in an interview. "From a probability standpoint, there’s not going to be another chance to study a killer asteroid like this for thousands of years. Sooner or later, we’re going to need this knowledge." 

What about OSIRIS-APEX?  Ars Technica is reporting that the mission has been flagged to be dropped in NASA's 2026 budget.  One wonders if anyone who wants a mission to study Apophis has ever talked with anyone who knows the budget.  I would guess that a custom designed probe could be made to outperform OSIRIS-APEX, but that using the one that's currently on a planned trajectory to rendezvous with Apophis seems like it has to be cheaper and easier than creating a new probe from scratch. 

Conceptual rendering of OSIRIS-Apex on asteroid Apophis. Image credi: NASA.

As usual, more info at the source article on this subject.



Thursday, June 26, 2025

SLS Program fighting to stay on the Gravy Train

It wasn't a big headline story, but the SLS program ran a couple of tests in the last week in an effort to keep the program alive.  We know from talk essentially since Trump's inauguration that he has not been a fan of the program.  During talk about how the Artemis moon landings ought to happen, we learned that the administration wants to end SLS after just three launches, while the preliminary text of a bill making its way through Congress would extend it to five flights. 

For the second time in less than a week, NASA test-fired new propulsion hardware Thursday that the agency would need to keep SLS alive. Last Friday, a new liquid-fueled RS-25 engine ignited on a test stand at NASA's Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. The hydrogen-fueled engine is the first of its kind to be manufactured since the end of the Space Shuttle program. This particular RS-25 engine is assigned to power the fifth flight of the SLS rocket, a mission known as Artemis V.

Then, on Thursday of this week, NASA and Northrop Grumman test-fired a new solid rocket booster (SRB) in Utah. This booster features a new design that NASA would use to power SLS rockets beginning with the ninth mission, or Artemis IX. The motor tested on Thursday isn't flight-worthy. It's a test unit that engineers will use to gather data on the rocket's performance.

The new SRB is referred to as BOLE for Booster Obsolescence and Life Extension.  While the test of the new production liquid fueled RS-25 apparently went as planned, the solid rocket booster self-destructed in under two minutes, less time than it's supposed to run.  You can watch it in this video that's set to start within 10 seconds of the explosion.  A strange appearance before the engine bell disappears is visible at 22:12 on the time line.  Few seconds later a large blast is visible.

We've covered this material many times, but the RS-25 engines leftover from the Shuttle era are running out and the replacements are prohibitively expensive (a two-word description of the entire SLS).  

Recognizing that shuttle-era parts will eventually run out, NASA signed a contract with Aerojet Rocketdyne to set the stage for the production of new RS-25 engines in 2015. NASA later ordered an initial batch of six RS-25 engines from Aerojet, then added 18 more to the order in 2020, at a price of about $100 million per engine. NASA and its contractor aim to reduce the cost to $70 million per engine, but even that figure is many times the cost of engines of comparable size and power: Blue Origin's BE-4 and SpaceX's Raptor.

Some old data that I've posted before says the BE-4 engines cost less than $20 million each while SpaceX is working to push the similarly powerful Raptor rocket engine costs even lower, to less than $1 million per engine.  Yes that means for four engines of the same power as the RS-25, SLS is running $400 million, BE-4s cost $80 million and I'll just say SpaceX is cheaper still and I won't go with the $4 million number implied there.  

An engineering evaluation booster exploding is not an indictment of the SLS program, but it's not a very good thing, either.  

An uncontained plume of exhaust appeared near the nozzle of an SLS solid rocket booster moments before its nozzle was destroyed during a test-firing Thursday.  Credit: NASA



Wednesday, June 25, 2025

EU Space company lost contact with its test capsule on first test flight

The Exploration Company is a European Union space company working to develop orbital spacecraft for cargo, and eventually humans.  They had their first test flight early this week, and apparently was progressing well until they lost contact with their "Mission Possible" vehicle.  It powered up and flew successfully in orbit before making a controlled reentry into Earth's atmosphere.  However between reentry into the atmosphere and landing, they lost contact with vehicle a few minutes before splashdown. 

In an update on LinkedIn Tuesday morning, the company characterized the test flight as a partial success—and a partial failure.

"The capsule was launched successfully, powered the payloads nominally in-orbit, stabilized itself after separation with the launcher, re-entered and re-established communication after black out," the company said in a statement. "We are still investigating the root causes and will share more information soon. We apologize to all our clients who entrusted us with their payloads."

That second paragraph leads off with saying they launched, powered on the payloads nominally in-orbit, and so on ... but especially note that it says, "...re-entered and re-established communication after black out."  That implies that the vehicle got through the most thermally challenging part of reentry into Earth's atmosphere and at least have some indications of the spacecraft's handling and ability to withstand maximum heating.  

 Following this, according to the company's timeline for Mission Possible, the capsule's parachutes were due to deploy at a velocity between Mach 0.8 and Mach 0.6. The parachutes were selected for their "proven flight heritage," the company said, and were procured from US-based Airborne Systems, which provides parachutes used by SpaceX’s Dragon, Boeing's Starliner, and other spacecraft.

Given when the spacecraft was lost, it seems most likely that there was a problem with the deployment of the drogue or main parachutes.

When you see the capsule, you might get a feeling of deja vu, or having been here before.  It's a ringer for the Apollo program command module or the Orion capsules:

The Mission Possible vehicle is seen during assembly.  Image credit: The Exploration Company

Mission Possible was a 2.5-meter diameter demonstration vehicle that was among the larger payloads launched Monday afternoon on SpaceX's Transporter 14 mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The mission sought to test four primary areas of spaceflight: structural performance in orbital flight, surviving reentry, autonomous navigation, and recovery in real-world conditions. It only clearly failed in this final task, recovering the vehicle within three days to return on-board payloads to customers.

You might recall having read about Mission Possible and founder Hélène Huby, this program was featured in a story back in last November.  In an interview then, Huby said Mission Possible was developed at a cost of about $20 million in 2.5 years, in addition to $10 million for the rideshare launch on the Falcon 9 rocket.  At the time, she said Mission Possible was on track to launch this summer, and the company met this timeline. 

The company has bigger goals, one of which is literally a bigger version of this vehicle, to be called Nyx.  

To date, the company has raised more than $230 million and plans to use much of that for the development of Nyx, which could fly as early as 2028 and focus on cargo delivery missions to low-Earth orbit. By demonstrating this capability, Huby said her company would like to secure funding from the European Space Agency to develop a crew-rated version of the spacecraft and a vehicle to return cargo from the Moon. 

I'd like to wish Hélène Huby and her team luck with that. I have a rather strong memory of reading that the European Space Agency had said they were of the opinion that if they were to develop reusable rockets that the EU countries wouldn't put up with them. In other words, this is just a jobs program with some "feel good" aspects to it. I hope they recover from that.



Tuesday, June 24, 2025

The On Again, Off Again Ax-4 is On Again

The on again, off again Axiom Space Ax-4 mission to the ISS is back on.  Scheduled liftoff time is 2:31 AM EDT Wednesday morning (6/25).  NASA Video is set to go live at 1:40 AM.  SpaceX's own coverage goes live before that; SpaceX says, "A live webcast of this mission will begin about two hours prior to liftoff" so about 12:30 AM EDT. 

I'm hoping that after this mission - or even just after this launch - someone explains the several cancellations and reschedules.

Ax-4 crew.  Image credit: SpaceX 



Monday, June 23, 2025

Can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites in orbit?

That's the first question and a relatively easy way to ask it; the harder version is "can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites into orbits fast enough to be a player in the satellite-based internet access world?"

What prompted this thought was this morning's 6:54 AM launch of the ULA Atlas V carrying Amazon's next 27 satellites into Low Earth Orbit.  It's worth pointing out that this was only the second launch of a full load of operational satellites for Amazon's Project Kuiper, a network envisioned to become a competitor to SpaceX's Starlink.  The first launch of a batch like this was Monday, April 28th, eight weeks ago.

Amazon is moving toward a goal of 3232 satellites in low-Earth orbit, enabling coverage of most of the populated world. Back in April of '22, word broke that Amazon had chosen "everybody except SpaceX" to launch "the majority" of their 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation.  Amazon had contracted for 68 rocket flights from United Launch Alliance, Arianespace, and Blue Origin.  Before those 68, they signed on for five Atlas V launches of the initial satellites in that eventual constellation.  The first two (prototype) Kuiper prototype satellites launched Friday, October 6th on an Atlas V after being swapped to it from the continually-slipping out maiden flight of Vulcan centaur.  

Amazon has procured more than 80 launches with four companies to put all of these satellites into orbit. ULA won the lion's share of the launch contracts to deploy more than half of the Kuiper constellation. Amazon purchased the last nine Atlas V rockets before ULA retires the vehicle in favor of the newer Vulcan rocket. Shortly thereafter, Amazon signed a contract for 38 Vulcan flights, each of which ULA says will deliver 45 Kuiper satellites into orbit. 

Europe's Ariane 6 rocket is under contract for 18 missions with Kuiper satellites. The New Glenn from Blue Origin, owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, will launch at least 12 times to add satellites to the Kuiper network. Amazon has a contract option with Blue Origin for up to 15 additional New Glenn launches.

SpaceX's Falcon 9 was contracted for a number of launches as well, also back in 2023.  The Falcon 9 is the only rocket that has actually flown at the kind of cadence envisioned for the Kuiper network.  The F9 currently flies at an average rate of once every two days, primarily on missions with SpaceX's own Starlink broadband satellites.

Amazon's competitor will launch the next batch of Kuiper satellites on a Falcon 9 as soon as next month. Those satellites are already at Cape Canaveral for final launch preparations, suggesting that Amazon is finally overcoming difficulties in activating its spacecraft factory in Kirkland, Washington. A source recently told Ars that satellites for the fourth Kuiper launch are undergoing final testing in Kirkland. For the first time, Amazon will soon be in a position of waiting on rockets before launching them.

One of the  main criteria that Starlink was designed to meet is latency - largely set by the amount of time radio signals take to travel from Earth to the satellites.  As with everything involved in the design of systems like radios, there are compromises.  To get the lower latency, the satellites need to be lower to minimize the time for the radio signals to go to/from higher orbits, but being lower limits the circular area they can communicate with, so there need to be more satellites in orbit to get the desired coverage.  As of May 30, 2025, there are currently 7,578 Starlink satellites in orbit, of which 7,556 are working.  They have been reported to have filed paperwork with an international regulator to loft up to 30,000 additional spacecraft.  They will be launching their own orbital internet for a long time to put up 30,000 satellites 20 (or so) at a time. 

With the Kuiper constellation containing the 3232 number of satellites quoted above, they don't have to put as many satellites in LEO as SpaceX does, but ULA is working on expanding their launch capabilities. 

ULA aims to double its launch capacity at Cape Canaveral to meet Amazon's demands. And Amazon is investing heavily to make it happen, committing $2 billion to pay for the expansion of ULA's manufacturing and launch capacity, with around $500 million going toward upgrades at the Florida launch base.

United Launch Alliance's Atlas V rocket soars through sky over Cape Canaveral, Florida, shortly after sunrise Monday. Credit: United Launch Alliance

I started this post by asking  "can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites into orbits fast enough to be a player in the satellite-based internet access world?"  I don't know.  It sounds like they're doing well but the only player mentioned here that seems to have demonstrated they can do it is not United Launch Alliance.



Sunday, June 22, 2025

A Ketchup You'll Relish

Thanks to those of you who stopped to send good thoughts and positive wishes.  Especially to those who left actual comments.  

The situation here is that by Friday morning I thought my recovery was pretty much done.  I had knocked off the prescription pain killers because the prescription pill didn't seem to be better at relieving pain than plain ole' Extra Strength Tylenol - and it didn't last as long as that cheaper, OTC (Over The Counter), drugstore pill, either.   By Wednesday, I was taking extended release Tylenol, pretty much one dose at bed time, which is one of those pills that is slow to dissolve so that it lasts eight hours.  I wasn't sleeping more than 5 hours on the prescription pain pill and could sleep nine hours on the extended release Tylenol.  Sleep is good.  More sleep is better. 

In the afternoon Friday, I took off the elastic support wrap I had been wearing so I could take a shower, and it was such a tremendous drop in pain that I sat around without it on for maybe an hour.  While sitting around, the skin that had been under the area where the elastic support bandage had two layers, started getting incredibly itchy.   When I looked down at my gut area, I had what looked like a heat rash.  

Basically that led to being very uncomfortable days from Friday afternoon through now.  I haven't really found anything that makes the itchiness go away completely but taking OTC benadryl antihistamine pills and adding some cortisone cream is as close as I've gotten.  Meanwhile, my followup appointment is Wednesday morning, but there's one really big bandage that's looking like one wrong move could make it fall off.   I think I call the surgeon's office with a "HELP" message first thing in the morning.  

Meanwhile, back at the ranch. 

Axiom Space's AX-4 mission to the ISS is back on hold with only a nonsense listing of a possible launch date (NET June 2025).  Which covers pretty much any day from right now out to infinity.  

Remember the Psyche mission?  A probe to examine the asteroid by that name (16 Psyche), launched in 2023.  This weekend, Psyche passed one of the milestones in its long trip to the asteroid - which is expected to take up the rest of this decade, making it to the asteroid in late 2029. 

The robotic mission proceeded normally until April 1, when the spacecraft detected a drop in pressure inside the line that feeds xenon fuel to its four thrusters. The craft reacted to the pressure signature by powering off the thrusters.

In the weeks between April 1st and now, they have studied the issue, switched to a backup plan and resumed "full thruster operations" on Monday, according to NASA.

The spacecraft, built by Maxar Space Systems, will operate its electric thrusters for the equivalent of three months between now and November to keep the mission on track for arrival at asteroid Psyche in 2029. 

Artist's illustration of NASA's Psyche spacecraft, as it approaches the asteroid, showing (most of) one of its solar arrays.  Image credit:  NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

One of my favorite quotes I've come across in reading reports on missions like this is from Lindy Elkins-Tanton, Psyche's principal investigator at Arizona State University.  She said when she gets asked what Psyche is going to look like she says "potato-shaped."

"It's not spherical," she said. "I always say potato-shaped because potatoes come in many shapes, so I'm not wrong."



Saturday, June 21, 2025

Sorry, I Got Nothing

A day of feeling rather crappy in new and different ways,  a day that has me trying to think of how to sleep until my post-surgery check in on Wednesday.   If I could just find a way to build a time machine and move up to that day...

Meanwhile... a quote I got from someone somewhere without saving that important info.

30% of my mistakes are due to incompetence, 80% to impatience, 10% to poor or wrong equipment and at least 20% are someone else's fault. The remaining 70% is caused by my poor math performance and insufficient thinking ahead. 



Friday, June 20, 2025

SpaceX takes over Vandenberg SFB, too.

Pretty much.  This past Monday, June 16, SpaceX launched its latest batch of 26 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit shortly after sunset.

So what?  The mission, Starlink 15-9, happened to be the 200th orbital launch from Vandenberg's SLC-4E.  The first launch of anything from SLC-4E was in May, 1964, an Atlas-Agena rocket shortly after the Air Force Western Test Range was activated and "Vandy" would go on to launch multiple variants of the Titan rocket until October 2005.  SpaceX used Vandenberg for some of their early, experimental work on the Falcon 1, but then went through a period of not being allowed to use the Space Force Base (Air Force Base in those days). 

One of the defining events early in the history of SpaceX is when the company was effectively booted from Vandenberg Space Force Base in 2005 after completing the first successful test firing of the Falcon 1 rocket there. This set the company off on a long romp to Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean before acquiring a launch site at Cape Canaveral, Florida. When SpaceX finally returned to Vandenberg half a decade later, it had the Falcon 9 rocket and was no longer the scrappy upstart. Since then, it has made Vandenberg its own. 

Of the 200 orbital launches from SLC-4E, 131 have been Falcon 9 launches - almost exactly two thirds.  You might recall that having just been cleared to proceed, SpaceX is in the process of rebuilding another launch complex at Vandenberg, SLC-6, so that it can handle Falcon Heavy and more Falcon 9 launches. 

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket (Booster B1093) lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base shortly after sunset on June 16, 2025, to begin the Starlink 15-9 mission.  Image credit: SpaceX



Thursday, June 19, 2025

Not much news since last night's Starship explosion

I assume that by now, everyone has heard about Starship 36's RUD late last night at Starbase (11:02 PM CDT), resulting in total loss of the ship and damages to the test stand at the Massey's Test Site that still remain hard to document.  There are dozens of good videos on YouTube, and gathered by NASASpaceflight, Lab Padre, and others.   Ars Technica uses a couple of good videos in their early morning article on the subject, revised as the day progressed.  This is screen grab of two replays of the explosion as it was happening, from Ars Technica's coverage.  NASASpaceflight top and Lab Padre bottom,


Considering we're around three hours short of 24 hours since the event, it's not surprising there's virtually no additional information.  One source I checked had a Tweet from Elon Musk saying it appears to be a component that failed to meet the pressure handling specifications it was sold to.  From YouTube channel Ellie in Space:


Where a COPV is a Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vehicle.  This appears to be referring to the small auxiliary tanks above the larger fuel tanks in the Starship.  

It's hard to not feel the concern in the press and "fan channels" that this yet another failure of a Starship  and the overall trend in Starship test flights really seems to have gone desperately bad in a very short amount of time.  Starship has yet to make orbit and despite memorable accomplish-ments like the capture of the returning booster with the chopsticks back in last October, they have not completed the recent test flights.  



Wednesday, June 18, 2025

New rocket from Japan takes off and lands on deployable legs

While I've covered several Japanese launches, they've all centered on the relatively established H2 or H3 families of launch vehicles.  This Tuesday (in Japan) we were treated to the launch of a new rocket from a company that has never built a launch vehicle: Honda.  That's right, the storied and enormously successful Honda Motors has joined the space industry, launching a test vehicle reminiscent of the old "Star Hopper" or "Hoppy" from Starbase before the first Starships were ever tested.   

The video is short and honestly more entertaining than I would have guessed.  I see a lot of familiar aspects in this short little mission.  

The vehicle is small and the flight was short.  I'm reading that as "proof of concept." 

[M]easuring less than 21 feet (6.3 meters) tall and about 2.8 feet (85 centimeters) in diameter. Fully fueled, the rocket weighed about 2,892 pounds (1,312 kilograms). Honda has been reticent about the rocket's engines, but the company's video of the test flight suggests the liquid-fueled engines consume cryogenic propellants, possibly a mixture of methane and liquid oxygen. 

Stepping into new territory is only a strange thing to those who don't know the company.  Honda started out building motorcycles in 1946, dove into the automobile industry in 1963, and started building small jets in 1986.   

"We are pleased that Honda has made another step forward in our research on reusable rockets with this successful completion of a launch and landing test. We believe that rocket research is a meaningful endeavor that leverages Honda’s technological strengths," Toshihiro Mibe, global CEO of Honda, said in a press release.

"Honda will continue to take on new challenges—not only to offer our customers various services and value through our products, while addressing environmental and safety issues, but also to continue creating new value, which will make people's time and place more enjoyable," Mibe said. 

I was somewhat surprised to read that Honda is working with the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) and Toyota motors on a pressurized, crewed, Moon rover. Honda has agreed to supply the rover with a renewable energy system for continuous production of oxygen, hydrogen, and electricity from sunlight and water. 

Honda isn't putting out specifics of how much they intend to focus on rockets.  There's talk about "still in the fundamental research phase," with the interest in possibly being being able to launch their own satellites to network their cars or other business cases like those that seem rather small.  

But Tuesday's test catapulted Honda into an exclusive club of companies that have flown reusable rocket hoppers with an eye toward orbital flight, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and a handful of Chinese startups. Meanwhile, European and Japanese space agencies have funded a pair of reusable rocket hoppers named Themis and Callisto. Neither rocket has ever flown, after delays of several years. 

Japan's biggest rocket producer is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, currently producing H2 and H3 boosters. MHI has never launched more than six missions in one year.  The H3 debuted in 2023 but didn't launch successfully for another year.  It is fully expendable.  

It might help perspective to remember that car companies aren't accustomed to making vehicles that can only be used once.  Much like aircraft companies. 

Honda's experimental rocket lifts off from a test site in Taiki, a community in northern Japan.



Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Axiom AX-4 back on Schedule for pre-dawn Thursday

After some more troubleshooting of the air leakage issues on the Space Station we talked about last week, the launch of Axiom Space's AX-4 has been put back on the calendar.  Launch is scheduled for Thurs, Jun 19, @ 4:53 AM EDT or 0853 UTC on Thursday.  This will be the second launch of booster B1094 and SpaceX's 76th mission of 2025, all Falcon 9 missions.  

I think that means B1094 is still going to look white before it frosts over.  

In the linked article about the leakages on the ISS last Friday (the 13th), we talked about how they've been dealing with leaks in the Russian Zvezda module and the areas it's connected to since 2019, and there were still pressure readings they didn't exactly have high confidence in.  

"Following the most-recent repair, pressure in the transfer tunnel has been stable. Previously, pressure in this area would have dropped. This could indicate the small leaks have been sealed," NASA wrote in a June 14 update

"Could indicate the small leaks have been sealed?"  And it could be less definitive.  NASA hasn't said this one is 100% fixed and done with.  

"Teams are also considering the stable pressure could be the result of a small amount of air flowing into the transfer tunnel across the hatch seal from the main part of space station," officials wrote in the update. "By changing pressure in the transfer tunnel and monitoring over time, teams are evaluating the condition of the transfer tunnel and the hatch seal between the space station and the back of Zvezda."

Meanwhile, the issues with Falcon 9 B1094 are a bit better addressed.  While B1094 has one prior flight, the Starlink 12-10 mission at the end of April, it apparently showed signs of a leak during that flight as well.

SpaceX's vice president of build and flight reliability, Bill Gerstenmaier, told reporters during a June 9 press conference that technicians "discovered that we had not fully repaired the booster during refurbishment — or we didn't, actually, didn't find the leak and didn't get it corrected."

But the repairs are complete now. SpaceX announced on June 12 that it has completed a new "wet dress rehearsal," or fueling test, with the rocket, and the launch vehicle is ready for the Ax-4 liftoff.

It's hard to tell from the published quote if Gerstenmaier sounded adequately embarrassed at not having fixed B1094 until the last few days.

Although it doesn't enter into the fuel leak discussion, it's worth noting that this is a new, unflown Crew Dragon, which the Axiom crew will have the honor of naming.  It is being talked about as the last Crew Dragon SpaceX will build.  Until the planned replacements and upgrades to the Falcon 9 with Crew Dragon are fully operational, it's harder to be fully sure that's the last one than that it will be "among the last couple" of Crew Dragons.  

The Ax-4 crew includes Mission Commander and Axiom Space's director of human spaceflight, Peggy Whitson of the U.S., in front, and the L-R around her, Pilot Shubhanshu Shukla of India, Mission Specialist Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski of Poland, and Mission Specialist Tibor Kapu of Hungary.


EDIT TO UPDATE 6/18 1115 AM EDT:  Within a couple of hours of hitting the "Post" button, this mission was rescheduled, yet again.  It's now scheduled for Sunday morning Jun 22, 2025 3:42 AM EDT



Monday, June 16, 2025

Pulsar Fusion engines opening office in Texas

The UK nuclear propulsion startup Pulsar Fusion has dreams of propelling rockets to destinations from the Moon to the outer solar system — but first, they’re headed to Texas.  Why?  Get closer to potential US clients and investors, of course.  For over a decade, Pulsar has been studying, developing, and testing its nuclear propulsion tech.  It's getting to be time to step up the level of efforts.  

Pulsar’s nuclear fusion spacecraft—Sunbird—consists of a dual direct fusion drive (DFDD), and eight Hall-effect thrusters. Together, these should provide the massive thrust capable of reaching speeds of 329,000 mph, and the smaller pulses needed for precise maneuvers. 

If you're used to reading about the speeds of probes we send up, 329,000 miles per hour sounds pretty fast; for example, when the Parker solar probe dove close to the sun last December, its speed peaked at 211,194 mph and that was fast.  The speed of light, though, is 186,000 miles per second.  There's 3600 seconds in an hour, multiplying that 186,000 by 3600 seconds per hour results in light speed equating to 670,000,000 miles per hour.  Speeds like 329,000 mph might shave whole digits off the flight to outer planets in years, but is dreadfully slow of what would be needed to go to other star systems. 

That said, their DFDD engine appears to be actual nuclear fusion and not a clever renaming of some other phenomenon.  

Pulsar plans to test its nuclear fusion tech in space by 2027, and is expected to test components of the Sunbird’s power system in orbit as soon as this year. In the meantime, the company is ramping up its ground-based tests.

  • Pulsar is test-firing its Hall-effect thrusters to demonstrate their technical capabilities; it has also signed an MoU with Thales Alenia Space, which has shown interest in the electric propulsion tech.
  • Pulsar also recently built two space grade vacuum chambers in England—the largest of their kind in the UK—which it will use to conduct endurance tests for its Hall-effect thrusters, and its Sunbird fusion spacecraft.

Here and now: Nuclear fusion propulsion has long felt out of reach, but thanks to AI, Pulsar officials say they have been able to refine the complicated propulsion technology to make it an operational reality. The company is using AI to help make their nuclear fusion reactors smaller, more intelligent, more precise, and ultimately, more practical.

Pulsar’s MarsEffect 10kW thruster, which has been test-fired under a UK Space Agency grant for Nuclear Electric Propulsion.  Image: Pulsar Fusion

Perhaps converting to horsepower might be useful: 1 HP = 746 watts so these 10,000 W thrusters reduce to 13.4 HP






Sunday, June 15, 2025

One out of two isn't that bad? Fuggedabout it.

Only one out of two is pretty bad.  

I'm talking, of course about last Saturday's post about "a strange weekend before an important weekend."  But it's worse than that.  All told, I spent hours on Monday and  Tuesday working on the weed removal, and that cap I included a picture of when it was in place on the weed trimmer broke within a few minutes of turning it on back on last Monday.  I had to print a replacement, which meant I had to push that overnight to Tuesday.  

Still, the weed trimming was complete in a day's worth of work.  The radio contest was great on Saturday the 14th but was almost completely dead today.  There's simply no way anybody working in the contest for points could have had a competitive score with one day. 

My emphasis in these contests is essentially never for scoring lots of points; my emphasis tends to be working "new ones" where new can mean, a state, a Maidenhead Grid, or a new country.  All for collecting "wallpaper."  Over the course of the hours spent in BIC time (Butt In Chair) you'll see the odd specificity of cross county openings that seems to be from the "couple of square miles" you're sitting in to a random couple of other square miles hundreds or thousands of miles away.  Then suddenly the exact locations of the other ends you hear change, some times just to an adjacent grid square, 3 or 4 miles away, sometimes hopping over neighboring squares to connect you to more distant places.  Often one or both ends of those cross-country hops reverse resulting in hearing the far end move back and forth.  

This year so far had a few days that resulted in great totals but yesterday was probably the best day of the year.  The problem is it would have been better for the contest if both days had been good instead of one truly great and one well-below average.  

If I gave you a bad impression that this weekend be better than it ended up being: my apologies.  There's a popular quote that I use often, accredited to physicist Niels Bohr: "Prediction is very difficult. Especially if it's about the future."  Because of that, I don't usually do bold quotes and predictions. 

You're not likely to encounter anyone more disappointed than I am about the contest.  

I've published this map several times; it's map of all the Two Letter grid squares in the USA handed out by Icom America at hamfests and other gatherings. This map gets you to the first level of descriptors, things like EM00 - two letters, two numbers. The level below this gets you two more letters after the number. So you get to smaller grid units like EM00aa.



Saturday, June 14, 2025

SpaceX Tries something new with Falcon 9

That statement is hard to wrap your head around.  With the 500th launch of a Falcon booster just last week,  the concept of doing something new with a Falcon 9 is a bit hard to grasp.   Haven't they done pretty much everything that can be done with a Falcon?  

Not according to this week's Rocket Report from Ars Technica.  

[T]he company tried something new following a launch on June 7 with a radio broadcasting satellite for SiriusXM. The Falcon 9's upper stage placed the SXM-10 satellite into an elongated, high-altitude transfer orbit, as is typical for payloads destined to operate in geosynchronous orbit more than 22,000 miles (nearly 36,000 kilometers) over the equator. When a rocket releases a satellite in this type of high-energy orbit, the upper stage has usually burned almost all of its propellant, leaving little fuel to steer itself back into Earth's atmosphere for a destructive reentry. This means these upper stages often remain in space for decades, becoming a piece of space junk that transits across the orbits of many other satellites.

Now, a solution ... SpaceX usually deorbits rockets after they deploy payloads like Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit, but deorbiting a rocket from a much higher geosynchronous transfer orbit is a different matter. "Last week, SpaceX successfully completed a controlled deorbit of the SiriusXM-10 upper stage after GTO payload deployment," wrote Jon Edwards, SpaceX's vice president of Falcon and Dragon programs. "While we routinely do controlled deorbits for LEO stages (e.g., Starlink), deorbiting from GTO is extremely difficult due to the high energy needed to alter the orbit, making this a rare and remarkable first for us. This was only made possible due to the hard work and brilliance of the Falcon GNC (guidance, navigation, and control) team and exemplifies SpaceX's commitment to leading in both space exploration and public safety."

This graphic illustrates the elliptical shape of a geosynchronous transfer orbit in green, and the circular shape of a geosynchronous orbit in blue. In a first, SpaceX recently de-orbited a Falcon 9 upper stage from GTO after deploying a communications satellite.  Image credit: European Space Agency

Over the course of the last few years, you've probably noticed a bit of an emphasis on trying to keep Earth orbit cleaner and less cluttered.  This is a topic I've devoted column space to over the years - another example.  I guess it's attractive to the greenies. 



Friday, June 13, 2025

The Ax-4 mission delay isn't just a routine delay

Axiom Spaces' Ax-4 mission was scheduled to launch early this past Tuesday morning, and has been delayed a couple of times.  There was talk about a fuel leak on the Falcon 9 booster and it listed as NET Thursday and then NET Today but it's currently not showing a launch date or time at all.  

The real reason for the delay is a recent big effort to address a leak on the ISS which has been tracked and worked on since 2019.  The results have been less than perfectly clear.   

The air leaks have been linked back to the transfer tunnel of the space station's Russian Zvezda service module, one of the oldest elements of the complex, the first elements of which were launched in 1998. The transfer tunnel, known by the Russian acronym PrK, connects the Zvezda module with a docking port where Soyuz crew and Progress resupply spacecraft attach to the station. 

From time to time, Russian cosmonauts have experimented with repairs to the small cracks, but they have generally only slowed the progression of the leak, which amounts to a couple of pounds of air per day. The best solution has been to close the hatch leading to the PrK module except when spacecraft dock with the attached port.

The problem is that both NASA and Roscosmos have said the leak on the PrK module had been "completely sealed."  However other sources have said that the space station is still losing air pressure.  The obvious conclusion to jump to is that something else on the station is leaking and nobody knows where, what or any of those important little details.  

"The postponement of Axiom Mission 4 provides additional time for NASA and Roscosmos to evaluate the situation and determine whether any additional troubleshooting is necessary," NASA said in a statement. "A new launch date for the fourth private astronaut mission will be provided once available."

One source indicated that the new tentative launch date is now June 18. However, this will depend on whatever resolution there is to the leak issue.

The obvious real concern is that the ISS is nearing its end of life and the people in charge of the station need to look at calculated values for the remaining service life not as as being absolutely right but  a BAGATOE (Best Available Guess At the Time Of Estimate).  The reality of the calculations is pretty much that.  

The worst case scenario on the ISS is that the leaks are a sign of a phenomenon known as "high cycle fatigue," which affects metals.  Pretty much everyone has seen something like bending a solid copper wire, having it harden as you continue to bend it and then suddenly lose its flexibility before cracking. This tends to happen suddenly and unexpectedly.

And that means that something major on the ISS could be be getting ready to fail suddenly and unexpectedly.

Accordingly, in its previous assessments, NASA has classified the structural cracking issue on the space station as the highest level of concern on its 5v5 risk matrix to gauge the likelihood and severity of risks to the space station.

In the meantime, the space agency has not been forthcoming with any additional information. Despite many questions from Ars Technica and other publications, NASA has not scheduled a press conference or said anything else publicly about the leaks beyond stating, "The crew aboard the International Space Station is safely conducting normal operations."

Oh, that inspires confidence. 

This photo of the International Space Station was captured by a crew member on a Soyuz spacecraft. Credit: NASA/Roscosmos